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The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--But Some Don'tUPDATED FOR 2020 WITH A NEW PREFACE BY NATE SILVER "One of the more momentous books of the decade." The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012
UPDATED FOR 2020 WITH A NEW PREFACE BY NATE SILVER "One of the more momentous books of the decade."--The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger--all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the "prediction paradox" The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good--or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary--and dangerous--science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver's insights are an essential read.Binding Type: Paperback
Publisher: Penguin Books
Published: 02/03/2015
ISBN: 9780143125082
Pages: 576
Weight: 1.00lbs
Size: 8.30h x 5.40w x 1.10d
Review Citations: New York Times Book Review 03/01/2015 pg. 28
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★★★★★ 5
The funny fart book
Format: Paperback
Grandson has a fart books for every occasion funny
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Reviewed in the United States on April 8, 2026
★★★★★ 5
Funny book
Format: Paperback
Kids love it
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Reviewed in the United States on April 5, 2026
★★★★★ 5
Funny bunny book
Format: Paperback
Cute book, farts are difficult to pronounce but it gives my kid a good laugh when I try. Must have been written during the pandemic, they poke fun at the flimsy surgical masks which can't contain a fart, let alone a highly contagious engineered virus. I'd recommend it for kids 5 and under.
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Reviewed in the United States on May 11, 2026
★★★★★ 4
Super Cute
Format: Kindle
This super cute ebook about a serious problem for little bunny. It is solve when he ask for help from a friend. But then followed advice from an elder to solve his problem.
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Reviewed in the United States on March 10, 2021
★★★★★ 5
Makes reading fun
Format: Paperback
In the day of gadgets, it is nice to watch my great nephew laugh with joy when we read his new favorite bed time story.
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Reviewed in the United States on April 8, 2024